Friday, July 16, 2010

Summer Doldrums Causing Disconnect - Sterlng Selling Levels On Daily/Weekly

Just casually watching this market as we seem to have firmly entered the doldrums of summer trading. There are markets that require you to trade often and aggressively, and then there are markets that are under-participated with low volume and low correlations, which require high levels of discretion. I believe today is an example of the latter. For example, look at the divergence between the Euro, Sterling and Swiss and Yen(some of the strongest currencies on the board) compared to the weaker markets today such as the Cad, US equities, US bond yields, crude oil, and a strong VIX. The markets seem to be out of rhythm today, which makes pulling a consistent risk ON/OFF theme tough to accomplish.

AUDUSD looks strong for a move towards 0.9000 to 0.9100 in wave .C-of-2/B, while the area of the prior wave iv at 0.8670 holds as support.
I even considered taking a shot at a long on a pullback towards 0.8750 with stops under 0.8670. But with non-confirmations of a risk-ON theme from the related markets mentioned above, I cannot take it. Take a look at Gold from yesterday's SOTD. If I were trading I would consider selling it into 1225, so it's hard to be bearish gold and bullish the Australian dollar at the same time. By the way, I view the current Gold count as a triangle in wave b-of-Y, with a terminal push to c-of-Y into that 1225 area. I am leaving it alone for now.

On more of a macro level, I am seeing some consistent theme of coming Sterling resistance on the daily and weekly charts against both Euro and USD. If we can get the divergences of the related markets to unwind and come to agree on a risk-OFF theme, selling sterling looks like an attractive long-term play.

EURGPB looks to have completed a double zigzag into the 0.8200 support zone and is poised to push higher. There are a series of highly visible lows around the 0.8400 level, which are sure to attract stop loss buying interest around that level. A push higher should trigger those buy stops accelerating the upside advance. Watching here for now.

Sterling is also facing resistance against the USD at the area of the prior fourth wave at around 1.5400-1.5550. I will be looking for opportunities to sell Sterling once those related markets begin to re-align. Patiently sitting on my hands here.

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