Friday, August 13, 2010

AUDUSD Rallying In Wave C-of-2 Setting Up Our Next Short Setup - Next Week.

Just a quick update to put the bookend on a nice week of trading for us. On the inset 180 min AUDUSD chart you can see AUDUSD pulled back to a textbook support level at the area of the previous 4th wave at 0.8920. Yesterday's SOTD called for a rally higher in AUDUSD, which we saw overnight. That reaction higher from 0.8920 can be counted in 5 waves and as you all know by now, corrections are never 5-wave affairs except for triangles, which this is not, so it must be part of a larger correction. The reaction back down is a B-wave trap for the blind trend-following crowd, as there is likely another 5-wave rally back above 0.9033 to complete the C-wave of larger wave 2. Some on Twitter have asked me why I am not looking to get long in here and there are two reasons. First, is the first dimension of our trading, Intermarket analysis. That tells us the S&P is very heavy and will likely make any dollar selloff quite tedious and laborious. Second, I have a guideline that I try to only hold positions over the weekend that are in the direction of the trend one larger time frame above our trading timeframe. In other words, we have been trading AUDUSD on the 15 and 30 min charts, and a quick look at the 60 min chart shows pure downtrend. So not taking any longs home over the weekend, but will be looking to sell rallies on Monday.

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